Compared to last year’s inaugural College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six bowls, this season’s marquee matchups have been massively disappointing.
The 2014 Playoffs included Florida State’s stunning demise at the hands of Oregon and Alabama’s loss to upstart Ohio State, which was starting its third-string quarterback. The 2015 edition has seen a 38-0 Alabama blowout of Michigan State and Clemson running away from Oklahoma, 37-17. The New Year’s Six bowls had an average score of 44-22. With no one-possession games, there hasn’t been a hint of drama.
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That should change in tonight’s National Championship game, as No. 1 Clemson and No. 2 Alabama meet in Glendale, Arizona. These are the undisputed top two teams in the country, which promises a compelling game. This kind of matchup is more rare than one might think.
Read More: Alabama’s Jake Coker Is Another Quarterback Cog in the Crimson Tide Machine
According to the F/+ statistical ratings, which combine two different statistical models, this will be the first time since the 2011 season that the nation’s top two teams actually meet in the title game. Here’s a look at the rankings for those years, with the actual title game teams in bold.
According to the F/+ ratings, the Alabama-LSU 2011 season title game did feature the best teams in the country, but even then, the S&P+ and FEI ratings—which make up F/+—didn’t agree on the second-best team, as FEI favored Oklahoma State. This year is different: it’s the first time since all of the ratings began in 2007 that the two teams with the top statistical rankings will meet in the title game.
The mismatch between BCS rankings/Playoff results and statistical rankings has shown up on the field, too, as only two National Championship games in the past decade—going back to the 2005 USC-Texas game that could go down as the best game of all-time—have been one-possession games.
Tonight could be a classic. Styles make fights, and the title game features strength versus strength, with Alabama’ smothering defense facing Clemson’s exciting offense.
Clemson’s Dabo Swinney and Alabama’s Nick Saban pose in advance of the College Football Playoff championship. Photo by Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports
Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney and Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban pose in advance of the College Football Playoff championship—Photo by Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports
Ever since an early season loss to Ole Miss, Alabama’s defense has been virtually unmovable. The Crimson Tide give up 4.09 yards per play, the second-best mark in the country; since facing the Rebels, the Tide have given up just 3.86 yards per play, a remarkably low number.
Much of the credit goes to Alabama’s stout front seven, which surrenders only 2.3 yards per carry to opposing rushers, the lowest number in the country. The Crimson Tide single-handedly shut down the Heisman Trophy campaign of star LSU running back Leonard Fournette, a sure-fire future first-round NFL Draft pick who came into the matchup with Alabama averaging 193 rushing yards per game and left Tuscaloosa with just 31.
Led by star defensive tackle and future first-round NFL Draft pick A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama rush defense is pretty much unblockable. Case in point:
The pass rush is just as strong. Alabama averages a national-best 3.57 sacks per game, and the Tide have two players who rank in the top 11 in sacks.
How can opposing offenses avoid getting swallowed? In the past, Alabama’s kryptonite has been mobile quarterbacks who are also exceptional passers. Every quarterback of a team that has beaten the Crimson Tide in the past three years—Ole Miss’s Bo Wallace and Chad Kelly, Ohio State’s Cardale Jones, Auburn’s Nick Marshall, and Oklahoma’s Trevor Knight—possessed that quality.
Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson is arguably the best quarterback Alabama has seen since Auburn’s Cam Newton, who torched the Tide’s defense in 2010. Watson completes 68.2 percent of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt. That would be impressive in its own right, but he also has rushed for 1,000 yards this season.
Alabama’s defense is teeming with former five-star high school talent, thanks to five consecutive top-ranked recruiting classes. Watson has all the individual tools to give the Tide fits. The winner of this matchup almost certainly will win the championship.
Clemson Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson finished third in voting for the Heisman Trophy. Photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
The undercard clash between the “weaker” units on both teams could be entertaining, too. Clemson’s defense has been inconsistent: dominant against some good offenses, such as Miami and Oklahoma, but mediocre against opponents it should dominate, like NC State. The Tigers will need to be at their best against Alabama, which boasts Heisman Trophy-winning running back Derrick Henry and an improving if fundamentally second-fiddle passing attack.
The key for Clemson’s defense will be disruptive plays, which are what the Tigers do best. Clemson has more tackles for loss than anyone in the country, and it will need those to both bottle up Henry and put pressure on Alabama quarterback Jake Coker. Coker started the season off poorly, even getting benched against Ole Miss, but in the past two games, against solid defenses in Florida and Michigan State, he completed 77 percent of his passes at 8.8 yards per attempt.
After a dud of a bowl season, Monday’s championship game has the potential to end the 2015 season on a high note. By the numbers, this is the best title matchup we’ve seen in a decade; let’s hope it’s just as good on the field.
