While White House officials walked back Donald Trump’s improvised threat of unleashing “fire and fury” it’s fair to say that tensions between the United States and North Korea have never felt higher—hey millennials, welcome to a nuclear scare.
In case you’ve been ignoring the news for the last week (lucky you) here’s what’s gone down to put North Korea and the United States on edge.
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On Saturday, the United Nations Security Council voted unanimously to impose a series of new sanctions following North Korea’s long-range missile tests last month. Pyongyang, angered by the decision, vowed to exact a “thousands-fold” revenge against the US, saying it was a “violation of our sovereignty” and part of a “heinous plot to isolate and stifle” the country.
Following these statements, Trump told the press at his club in Bedminster, New Jersey, that “North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States,” and that any further provocations “will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
(Update: 30 minutes after we published this story, Trump said this:)
To show they mean business, North Korea plans to exert a show of force by firing four missiles near the US pacific territory of Guam.
Experts are still skeptical whether the North Korean nuclear weapons program has the capability of hitting anywhere in the continental US, according to Air force General Paul Selva in an interview with the Globe and Mail.
However, it was just a few months ago that we believed North Korea wouldn’t be able to develop a miniaturized nuke to the point it could be loaded onto an intercontinental ballistic missile. But if North Korea’s program continues to progress, Canada would be caught in the middle—literally—of a potential ICBM attack on the US.
Given that the trajectory of the missiles includes a flight directly over Canada, it’s possible that a shoddy, off-course missile could inadvertently fall on Canadian soil. According to the National Post, any missile fired at New York City, would pass over Gjoa Haven, NU, Hudson Bay, and Ottawa. A Boston-bound missile would pass near Montreal. If something suddenly happens to those missiles on route to the US, well, sucks for us.
Still, the latest missile launched last month from North Korea flew for about 1,000 kilometers and landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone. The distance between North Korea and Canada is about 8,000 kilometers, so there’s still a ways to go. Analysts believe it will take several more years and many more tests until the missiles are perfected.
So what’s Canada doing about it and what’s our defense strategy?
Well long story short, we kind of don’t have one. Canada doesn’t want to involve itself in the debacle. A 2014 Senate report revealed that should a missile appear over the Northwest Territories, Canada’s only move would be to warn the US.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called North Korea’s moves “provocative” and “irresponsible” but has said little about the ongoing tensions, even after Canada secured the release of a Toronto pastor from North Korea this week.
Canada, while funding Europe-based missile defence programs, has yet to participate in a North American-based version of a ballistic missile defence. Since the 1980s, Canada has been debating the involvement in these kinds of programs. Under former prime minister Paul Martin, Canada refused to take part, saying it was unnecessary. The Trudeau government’s recent defence policy also upholds this position.
While Canada has officially denied being part of any program, it still relies heavily on the US to shoot down missiles in the event of a nuclear attack (and on a technical level, missile defence is hardly a guarantee). In an interview with CBC, Richard Weitz, of the Washington-based Hudson institute, said Canada won’t officially take this “America will protect us” position so as not to look reliant on outside powers.
“It makes it look like the fate of the Canadian people and the defence of the Canadian people is outside their hands,” he said. “I think Canadians would generally trust any administration in Washington to protect them, but it’s still an uncomfortable stance.”
There’s still one more option on the table: diplomacy. But Canada has little to no role to play there. Canada’s diplomatic relations with North Korea are as rocky as any Western country. There’s no official embassies built in the two nations, and in 2010 Canada imposed tight restrictions, including the adoption of a Controlled Engagement Policy.
Under this policy, communication between the two countries is restricted to the following subjects: 1) regional security concerns; 2) the human rights and humanitarian situation in North Korea; 3) inter-Korean relations; and 4) consular issues. According to the government of Canada “all government-to-government cooperation and communication on topics not covered under the Controlled Engagement Policy has been suspended.”
Canada has also imposed a series of economic sanctions against North Korea, a response to North Korea’s continued breach against international peace and security. The sanctions include: an import and export ban; a ban on all new investment in North Korea; and, a ban on the provision of financial services to North Korea and to persons in North Korea.
Douglas Roche, a former member of Parliament and senator and Canada’s ambassador for disarmament to the United Nations, told the CBC that “Americans could attempt to completely destroy the North Korean military; opt for a limited strike to wreck the country’s nuclear and ballistic missile capacity; order a decapitation attack to take out Kim’s regime—or try diplomacy.”
So to summarize, Canada is basically just sitting here hoping that Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un act like rational leaders and everything will be fine.
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