JEFF JOHNSON PICKS YOUR BETS – PREAKNESS EDITION

OK, that didn’t end so smoothly. Nastanovich told us Adriano was the one to beat, and then the Derby happened and, well, we got this note from him: “Adriano. I’m still out there looking for him! What a bad pick!” I picked Big Brown, but in a trifecta with two shit horses. I picked Eight Belles “to win” for three dollars. As you may remember, she “placed” then was soon euthanized. I did make some of my money back on Dennis of Cork when he “showed.” $42 and change to be precise. I am a really high roller. This weekend, of course, is leg two of the Triple Crown. The Preakness in Baltimore (Sunny and 74 degrees). I’d say choose Big Brown, but not by himself, because at 1-2 odds you are donating money.

There’s some concern over Big Brown though, that his legs may fall apart. This below comes from Ray Kerrison, in the NY Post the other day:

“Big Brown, on our figures, ran by far the best Derby of all time,” said Jerry Brown, proprietor of Thorograph, a speed charting service widely used by owners, trainers and bettors. “The second best was Barbaro two years ago, but Big Brown ran about four lengths faster than Barbaro.”

And that might be the problem. When he goes in the Preakness, Big Brown will be at risk, the same kind of risk Barbaro faced.

Brown said both horses will have gone to the Preakness only two weeks after running their fastest races ever, on top of a thin foundation of only a few races.

“That places them in jeopardy,” said Brown. “I’m not for a minute implying that Big Brown will break down in the Preakness, as Barbaro did, but when horses run very fast at the highest level on short rest, they are under great stress.

“Rick Dutrow (Big Brown’s trainer) recognizes the problem. He’s talking about it publicly. He knows he’s bringing the horse back on only two weeks rest and it is a big concern.”

In exotic bets I’d choose Kentucky Bear. He does not have much experience, but I’m inclined to consider that a plus, at this point. Other people are predicting Gayego will do well. I’m thinking he’ll finish in the top five, but not the Top three. He shafted me (another bet) in the Derby, and now I have a grudge and since then has flown to California, and all the way back to Baltimore. I don’t think that bodes well for his success.

Here’s my trifecta box: Big Brown, Kentucky Bear, and Icabad Crane–who like Adriano, is trained by Graham Motion. I’m giving him another chance.

If you wanna get crazy, put $5 down on Stevil, as he may have a chance to do something.

See you in a few weeks for the Belmont Stakes.

Here’s two classy Preakness clips, to again make our founding fathers proud: