According to information from the Discord Leaks, Russia is worried about Ukraine deploying NATO tanks and plans to distribute videos of the destruction of Western tanks in a desperate bid to boost morale among its soldiers.“Personnel training efforts would be administered to educate on the vulnerabilities of NATO tanks, and to develop morale and psychological fortitude, within personnel units confronting them,” the Top Secret U.S. memo said. “Financial incentives would be offered for capture or destruction of foreign tanks, and videos of tanks would be widely distributed to reduce the confidence of Ukraine and the west and reassure Russian troops of their ability to overcome this new weaponry.” The memo did not specify whether Moscow planned to distribute the videos internally or on public channels, or both. Ukraine has been planning a counter-offensive against Russia for months, and central to its strategy is the arrival of tanks from the West. For months, Ukraine begged NATO for tanks and the military alliance refused to budge. Now, eight different countries have armor on the way, including Germany, the U.K., and the United States.Tanks were a big part of Russia’s initial push into the country, but Ukraine proved adept at destroying them. Munitions like the Javelin were great at hitting tanks from the sky and destroying them. An early meme of the war mocked Russian soldier’s attempt to cover the top of tanks in improved armor dubbed “cope cages.” Russia’s losses were so bad, it led some people to declare tanks obsolete. But tanks are still an important part of modern war and Kyiv said it would need them to push Russian troops out of Ukraine. In January, the U.S. announced it would send 31 M1A2 Abrams tanks to Ukraine with hopes that they’d arrive by fall. Germany, who repeatedly pushed back against sending armor to Ukraine, is sending 18 Leopard 2s.Russia, which at the start of the war owned more tanks than any other country on the planet, has lost almost 2,000 of them. Around 1,184 have been destroyed and more than 500 have been captured. A captured T-90, somehow, even ended up at a gas station in Louisiana. Russia’s running so short on modern equipment that it’s begun to deploy 75-year-old tanks built in the 1940s to the frontlines.If Russia’s tanks can’t hold their own against loitering munitions and top attack weapons, it’s hard to imagine they’ll do well against modern NATO armor during an offensive. According to the memo in the Discord Leaks, this fact is very much on the minds of Russia’s military leadership. But the intelligence was short on what, specifically, Moscow would do to counter the tanks on the battlefield. “The strategy called for establishing three fire zones, based on range—long, medium, and short—with each zone covered by specific weaponry and unit types,” it said.It’s more focused on the psychological impact of the tanks, both on the morale of the Russian soldier, and Ukraine’s western allies. The idea seems to be to blow up a few tanks, capture it on video, and disseminate it as widely as possible. “The General Staff expected the proposed measures to undermine any desire by Ukrainian leadership to launch counter attacks, damage the image of NATO members that lend support due to the destruction or capture of their so-called modern tanks, and discourage the West from rendering additional assistance to Ukraine,” it said.Full memo below.“Russian devises plans to combat NATO tanks going to Ukraine beginning April 2023.”
“The Russian General Staff and Ground Forces in February developed measures to combat NATO tanks that were expected to be delivered to Ukraine beginning in April. The strategy called for establishing three fire zones, based on range—long, medium, and short—with each zone covered by specific weaponry and unit types. At the same time, personnel training efforts would be administered to educate on the vulnerabilities of NATO tanks, and to develop morale and psychological fortitude, within personnel units confronting them. Financial incentives would be offered for capture or destruction of foreign tanks, and videos of tanks would be widely distributed to reduce the confidence of Ukraine and the west and reassure Russian troops of their ability to overcome this new weaponry. The General Staff expected the proposed measures to undermine any desire by Ukrainian leadership to launch counter attacks, damage the image of NATO members that lend support due to the destruction or capture of their so-called modern tanks, and discourage the West from rendering additional assistance to Ukraine.”
Update 5/3/23: This article originally called the Javelin a ‘Loitering munition.’ It’s not, a loitering munition lingers in the air before striking, a Javelin is a ‘top-attack’ weapon that goes into the air before plummeting down onto its target.Update 5/7/23: This article originally put the total of Russian tank losses at 10,000. That’s an estimate of the total vehicle losses of the Russian military, not tanks. 
