Ethiopians have reacted with a mixture of shock, relief and scepticism at the sudden conclusion of the two-year civil war between the Ethiopian government and rebel fighters from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
The peace deal was brokered by the African Union, with negotiations led by Nigeria’s former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Deputy President of South Africa Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka. Announcing the deal on Wednesday in Pretoria, Obasanjo hailed the agreement as the first step towards lasting peace.
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“The two parties in the Ethiopian conflict have formally agreed to the cessation of hostilities as well as to systematic, orderly, smooth, and coordinated disarmament, restoration of law and order, restoration of services, unhindered access to humanitarian supplies, protection of civilians,” Obasanjo said.
In a statement on Twitter, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed promised that his government would work to uphold the agreement. “Our commitment to peace remains steadfast,” Ahmed wrote. “And our commitment to collaborating for the implementation of the agreement is equally strong.”
But not everyone is as optimistic.
Awet is a former Tigrayan journalist now living in exile. He was in Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, when the war broke out on the 3rd of November 2020. He was recently married and had just moved to the city with his wife and seven-month-old baby. But in the space of just two months, everything changed. He was separated from his family and had to flee his country after news of the mass arrests and detention of Tigrayan journalists deemed a threat by the Ethiopian government. He sought refuge in neighbouring Djibouti before being resettled in a third country.
“I remember the horrors,” Awet, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said. “I witnessed drone strikes, bombings, killings, everything. My family was hiding in the basement of a building and all I could do was hold my seven-month-old daughter and pray.”
Like many Ethiopians around the world, Awet received the news of the surprise truce with mixed feelings.
“It’s been two years of separation from my family, my wife and kid, I have been living in hell,” he told VICE World News. “I am depressed. I don’t know how my family in Tigray is. I don’t know if my brother in Axum is alive, I haven’t spoken to my parents. I don’t know what has happened to them.”
Tigist Gidey fled with her family two years ago to a refugee camp in Eastern Sudan. “I lost everything,” the 30-year-old Tigrayan told VICE World News. “My husband and child were killed by my neighbours in Humera. I am here with my parents and siblings. I have nothing left to go back to in Ethiopia.”
After two years of conflict, Tigray lies in ruins. The government imposed a 17-month blockade, causing little to no access to the internet, banking or phone services. According to the United Nations, around 500,000 people have died as a result of the conflict, while millions of Tigrayans and other ethnic groups have been displaced by the ensuing ethnic violence. More than 5 million people are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance.
The conflict has also been marred by gross human rights violations. In September, a report by the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia, under the mandate of the UN’s Human Rights Council, accused Ethiopian government forces and allied militias, TPLF and Eritrea’s military of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Human rights experts are demanding that accountability and justice be central to the peace process.
“To ensure justice for victims and survivors of atrocities, the Ethiopian authorities must allow unfettered access to human rights investigators, including the UN-mandated International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia,” Muleya Mwananyanda, Amnesty International’s Director for East and Southern Africa, said in a statement.
“They must also provide humanitarian corridors so that the thousands of people facing starvation and medical emergencies can get the assistance they need.”
As part of the agreement, the Ethiopian government has committed to restoring public services and to opening humanitarian access for millions of people in the Tigray region. But no timelines have been set.
Another unresolved, yet crucial, detail is whether Eritrea, which has been fighting alongside Ethiopian federal forces and other allied ethnic militias in Tigray, will respect a deal they have not signed or commented on.
“The agreement is an outcome of a process that excluded key belligerents, mainly Amharas and Eritrea. Hone Mandefro, the Director of Advocacy for the Amhara Association of America – an organisation that supports Amharans across the diaspora – told VICE World News.
“It can only hold if the agreement and its implementation phase address the critical concerns of these excluded belligerents. For instance, Amharas fought with Abiy against TPLF because they wanted to resolve their long-standing claim over Wolkait and Raya areas. They are now in control of Wolkait and Raya and expect to maintain control of these areas. Nothing in the purported final agreement circulating on social media says they cannot continue administering these areas. If the final deal implies Amharas should give up control of these areas until a final resolution is reached, the agreement will likely only hold for a short time.”
