Nashville Will Become the First Wildcard Stanley Cup Finals Team

Welcome to the third round of the NHL playoffs. Let’s get you caught up on what’s happened so far.

The worst team in the Central, according the standings, made it through. The worst team in the Atlantic, according to the experts, did, too. The Presidents’ Trophy winner went home in the second round, and their fans are very sad. And in the Pacific, a top seed that never wins Game 7 captured the division by winning a Game 7.

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In other words, nobody has any idea what’s going on, or what’s going to happen. It’s chaos out there. Beautiful, beautiful chaos. Let’s get to the conference final preview.

Western Conference

One team is back in the conference final for the second time in three years. The other has never been here before, ever. It’s not exactly a matchup between long-established hockey markets, but it should be fun.

WC Nashville Predators vs. #1 Anaheim Ducks

In this corner: The Predators (41-29-12, 94 points, +18 goals differential not counting shootouts), who struggled through an underwhelming first half of the season before hitting their stride in time for the playoffs.

The road so far: They stunned the favored Blackhawks with a four-game sweep in the opening round, then disposed of the Blues in six to reach the conference final for the first time in franchise history.

Injury report: With the obvious yet important caveat that just about everyone is banged up at this time of year and NHL teams are under no real obligation to tell us anything, the Predators injury list is fairly empty, apart from Kevin Fiala, who is out for the year after suffering an ugly broken leg in the second round.

The big question: How do you slow down the Predators offense from the blueline? The team’s big three of P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, and Ryan Ellis have combined for 24 points, with each of those players ranking among the team’s top five scorers. For comparison, the team’s other three blueliners have just three points total.

It’s rare for a team to get that much scoring from the backend, and it’s made up for the fact that the Predators forwards have been only OK. It will be interesting to see if the Ducks make any sort of adjustment to try to take away those blueline chances and force the guys up front to beat them.

One player to watch: Ryan Johansen. The fourth overall pick in the 2010 draft has long been viewed as an underrated two-way center—think along the lines of a poor man’s Jonathan Toews or Anze Kopitar.

The Predators paid big to get him, surrendering Seth Jones in a blockbuster trade with the Blue Jackets last year, and for the most part he’s given them what they were looking for. His 61 points tied him for the team lead, and he led the forwards in ice time. Still, he’s the sort of player who always seems to leave you wanting just a little more. He has a team-leading nine points in this year’s postseason, but with a matchup with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry looming, he’ll be under the brightest spotlight of his career over the next two weeks.

Key number: .951, Pekka Rinne’s save percentage so far in the postseason. You can dig into all sorts of numbers and narratives, but when your goaltender is stopping 19 out of every 20 shots, you’re going to win.

Rinne isn’t as good as his numbers indicate; he was a more pedestrian .918 on the regular season, and has been under .910 in each of his last two playoff runs before this current one. But that doesn’t matter. He’s red hot right now, and if he stays that way, the Predators probably win the series.

And in this corner: The Ducks (46-23-13, 105 points, +23), the only first-place team to make it through two rounds.

The road so far: They’ve made Alberta really sad. The Ducks swept the Flames in round one, then needed the full seven to get past the Oilers.

Injury report: The Ducks were missing several guys by the end of the Edmonton series, including Kevin Bieksa and Patrick Eaves. With just 48 hours to rest up between series, they’ll be at a disadvantage against a Predators team that’s been off since Sunday.

The big question: Should we be worried about John Gibson at all? At 23, Gibson is getting his first taste of the playoffs as an undisputed starter, and he got his team in the conference final. But he’s giving up nearly three goals a game, and his save percentage is just .908. That number is skewed a bit by that Game 6 meltdown against the Oilers, which was one of those nights where nothing went right for anyone on the team. But with Rinne playing as well as he has, the goaltending matchup could be a question mark for Anaheim.

One player to watch: Ryan Getzlaf. The Ducks center has been so good for so long that you can sometimes forget about him in favor of the latest young star. But that wasn’t possible in round two, when he played some of his best hockey in years and tied a franchise record with ten points. When you’re clearly the best player in a series that includes Connor McDavid, that’s pretty good.

Key number: 82.9. That’s the Ducks’ power play rate plus penalty kill rate for the playoffs, which is a way of assigning one number to a club’s special teams. An average mark would be 100, so the Ducks have been nowhere near good enough. They rank dead last among the 16 playoff teams, and the Predators clock in at an impressive 107.5, so Anaheim better figure out their special teams soon if they’re going to have a chance.

Head-to-head: The Ducks took two of three. Each team won a game over the other by five goals; the third was decided in a shootout.

Dominant narrative: The battle of the bluelines. We’re always told that a winning NHL team is built from the backend out, with the goaltending and blueline being the most important positions. Yet that’s not exactly true—Stanley Cup Final goalies have ranged from excellent to decidedly average, and we’ve seen plenty of teams make deep runs without an excellent defense. Look at the Eastern Final: the Penguins blueline is held together with duct tape, while the Senators are Erik Karlsson and pray for rain.

Not in this series, though. This matchup may feature the two deepest bluelines in hockey. The Predators are top-heavy with those three star performers, while the Ducks are young and deep across all three pairs. Most series feature at least a few defensemen on each side who need to be hidden away from tough matchups, but not this one.

Prediction: Predators in six. No wildcard team has made the final since the new format was introduced in 2013. That changes this year.

Bonus prediction that is oddly specific: The series is tied until the Predators go into Anaheim and steal Game 5 in overtime.

Eastern Conference

We were this close to seeing a team win a division it wasn’t even in. You ruin everything, New York Rangers. Well, except for the Senators. You barely even put a dent in them.

#2 Ottawa Senators vs. #2 Pittsburgh Penguins

In this corner: The Senators (44-28-10, -4), who didn’t lock down a spot until the final week and were the only playoff team with a negative goals differential, but still had home ice in the first two rounds.

The road so far: Despite being labeled underdogs in both series, the Senators knocked out the Bruins and the Rangers in six games each, winning five overtime games along the way.

Injury report: Mark Borowiecki is the only player sidelined, but Erik Karlsson is playing through a hairline fracture in his foot and missed a period in Game 4 against the Rangers.

The big question: How do you stop Karlsson? The Sens star has already won two Norris Trophies, finished second in the voting last year, and will wind up first or second again when this year’s results are announced, so hopefully nobody’s surprised to find out that he’s really good. Even given the high standards he’s set, it’s been stunning to watch him take over games at key moments.

The foot is a concern, and there were reports that he was limping after the Rangers series ended. If he misses any time, it’s a series-changer. Assuming he can play through it, however, the Penguins had better have an answer for him, because they haven’t faced a blueliner anywhere close to him so far this postseason.

One player to watch: Eugene Melnyk. OK, he’s the owner, not a player, but he’s only a few weeks removed from an epic rant on Sidney Crosby after the Marc Methot incident, and there’s roughly an 80 percent chance he says or does something over the next few days that puts him in the spotlight.

If you’d prefer a player, let’s go with Mark Stone. The Senators don’t have a truly elite forward, unless you want to count Karlsson, who’s technically a defenseman but could probably strap on the pads and be a top-five goalie at this point. Stone is often their best player up front, combining decent offensive numbers with a Selke-level defensive game. He hasn’t exactly been front and center so far in the playoffs, posting just six points, but he could be a key part of the plan to shut down Crosby and friends. If he can rediscover his offensive side, then he could tip a game Ottawa’s way.

Key number: Three, the number of times this postseason that the Senators have won a game after trailing by multiple goals. Before this year, they’d only managed that sort of playoff comeback four times in their entire franchise history. Given what they’re up against, they’ll probably spend a significant amount of time trailing in this series, and maybe by a lot. Don’t count them out when it happens.

And in this corner: The Penguins (50-21-11, 111 points, +49), who you may know as the defending champs.

The road so far: The Penguins have had just about the toughest path possible, beating the league’s best and fourth-best regular-season teams. They had a relatively easy time dispatching the Blue Jackets in five, and just finished off the Capitals in a grueling seven games.

Injury report: They say that Matt Murray is healthy again, although we haven’t seen him play yet and won’t unless Marc-Andre Fleury struggles. On defense, Kris Letang is out for the playoffs, and Trevor Daley missed the end of the Capitals series.

The big question: Can the blueline hold together?

As always, the Penguins can throw plenty of offense at you, but the back end is a major question mark right now. They deserve all the credit in the world for finding a way to shut the Capitals down, but it won’t get much easier against Ottawa. And if they suffered even one more injury, it could get ugly.

One player to watch: Sidney Crosby. He’s the best player in the world, so you don’t need me to tell you to keep an eye on him. But Crosby was an even bigger story than usual in the second round thanks to a scary-looking collision that resulted in another concussion. He sat out a game before coming back, raising plenty of eyebrows, and then went headfirst into the boards in Game 6. You have to assume that the Penguins have run him through all the tests and decided he’s 100 percent recovered, but it’s hard not to wonder if the next big hit could be the last one he takes for a while. And you can bet that the Senators will be eager to find out.

Key number: 200, the number of regular-season and playoff games the Penguins have played dating back to opening night of the 2015-16 season. That’s a lot, especially when you factor in that several of their key payers also took part in last fall’s World Cup. There hasn’t been a repeat Stanley Cup winner in the cap era, and that’s mostly due to parity, but it’s also partly due to fatigue, and the Penguins must be feeling some by now.

Head-to-head: The Senators took two of three. The lone Pittsburgh win was a wild 8-5 game back in December.

Dominant narrative: Inevitability. The Penguins just won a war between the league’s top two teams, capturing a series that felt like the de facto Stanley Cup final. Meanwhile, the Senators made it to the conference final without really playing anyone all that good thanks to the NHL’s weird playoff format. So one team is on the way to a championship and the other should be happy just to be here. Why even play the games, right?

Note: This narrative will last right up until the Senators win Game 1 and everyone freaks out.

Prediction: Penguins in seven. Look, it’s the most likely result; the Pens are the better team here. But don’t let anyone try to tell you this is any kind of foregone conclusion. The Senators could absolutely pull this off.

Bonus prediction that is oddly specific: Melnyk is publicly accusing the league of a pro-Penguins conspiracy by Game 4 at the latest.

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