You’re reading VICE Australia’s weekly lead-in to the federal election. Progressive or conservative, they’ve all got a reason to play the game – shouldn’t you know enough to talk about it at the pub?
Australian leaders of all persuasions have flocked to condemn the actions of Russian President Vladimir Putin overnight, in unison with allies across the West, after Russia rained missiles on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa in the late hours of Thursday night, AEDT. However loud they profess their condemnations, though, none of it really matters.
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At least, not to Russia.
On Wednesday, the Australian government rolled out a skillet of sanctions to cover the backs of its allies across the West. The first wave of sanctions included lukewarm financial stonewalls and travel bans on eight members of Russia’s national security council, who were described as playing a role in “aiding and abetting” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Later the next day, as politicos across Washington D.C. were wiping sleep from their eyes in the early hours of Thursday morning, Scott Morrison was best positioned to take centre stage to roll out even more sanctions, clad in the sort of anti-bullying lexicon that “strongman” politicians borne of the post-Trump era have come to capitalise upon.
Morrison’s second wave of sanctions didn’t go much further than the first. Come Thursday morning, Australia’s Governor-General David Hurley signed amended sanction regulations which will allow the Australian government to target any individual to have pledged support for Russia’s military offensive. These later sanctions won’t come into effect until March.
Before experts could say it, Morrison all but confessed the sanctions were more symbolic than anything else.
“I don’t necessarily expect it to deter an authoritarian autocratic leader [who] is intent on taking the opportunity to pursue their own interest by violating another country’s sovereignty, who’s clearly been preparing to do that for some time,” Morrison said on Thursday.
He was right. Michelle Grattan, a professorial fellow at the University of Canberra, said “Australia is in the choir stalls, not centre stage, when it comes to the West’s response [to Russia].”
“In terms of effect, anything Australia does will mean a lot less to the Russians than similar sanctions imposed by the bigger players (not that those are deterring President Putin). As Morrison noted, our trade with Russia is small,” Grattan said.
Grattan reckons it’s Morrison’s posturing, not the effects of his actions, that should be watched more closely. The Ukraine crisis has given the Prime Minister the opportunity to talk tough, to “stand up to bullies”, and to reignite his government’s push to make national security a tentpole talking point of the May election, as he tries to put space between himself and his opposition.
That much was clear when Morrison stood up before the cameras late Thursday afternoon, where he stood in defiance of President Putin, whose behaviour he described as that of a “bully”, or some other variation of the word, at least 20 times. In her column late on Thursday, Rachel Withers pointed to the irony, after a modicum of tweets were quick to paint Morrison as a bully himself, of “everyone from Christine Holgate, to transgender kids, to the Biloela family.”
For opposition leader Anthony Albanese, though, the Ukraine crisis has emerged as a bit of a toe drag. While his party’s voting record on national security largely sits in-step with the Coalition, he has no track record of leading the country through a crisis of any scale. Even though Morrison’s leadership record is questionable at best – made worse by ongoing disappearing acts – he has experience.
And as developments in Ukraine worsen, Albanese’s chances of directing debate to more comfortable territory slowly deplete.
Cost of living, wages, climate, and whatever else Albanese’s increasingly opaque government wants to wedge the Coalition on, have all been put on ice. He could embellish the front cover of every glossy magazine in the country – what few of them are left, anyway – and it would be difficult to steer the attention of voters away from Morrison.
Political analysts have been eager to compare the roadblock to a similar split back in 2001, when terrorist attacks in the US acted as a springboard for former Prime Minister John Howard who, like Morrison now, was behind in the polls. The September 11 attacks in New York City all but gifted Howard the 2001 election, as fear put the nation in a headlock.
While expert’s say Russia’s strangle hold on Ukraine may have far fewer direct impacts locally, Albanese’s rebrand couldn’t have come at a worse time.
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