The Montreal Canadiens Made an Awful Trade and It Doesn't Make Any Sense

Late yesterday afternoon, news broke that the Oilers had finally pulled off their long-rumored trade for a top defenseman. Details were sketchy, but the first name to emerge was shocking: all-star Taylor Hall. Next, we learned the identity of the other team involved: The New Jersey Devils. That causes confusion, because short of goalie Cory Schneider, the Devils didn’t have anyone worth surrendering Hall for. Finally, we got the whole deal: Hall for Adam Larsson, straight up. The hockey world reeled. Larsson is a decent young player, but nowhere near a proven No. 1, and the Oilers had just given up one of the best left wingers in the world for him. This was, quite possibly, the worst one-for-one trade we’d ever seen.

And it held that title for all of about seven minutes.

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That’s how stunning the P.K. Subban for Shea Weber trade between the Canadiens and Predators was; it knocked all the Taylor Hall punchlines off your Twitter timeline pretty much immediately. By the time we found out, just a few minutes later, that Steven Stamkos had signed an extension in Tampa Bay, we all reacted like distracted parents. Sure, sure, Steven, that’s wonderful news, but we’re dealing with something important right now.

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To even call the Subban deal a blockbuster would seem like under-selling it. This was something bigger, a trade that was both impossibly simple and ridiculously complex at the same time. It involves a pair of two-time first-team all-stars, both with massive contracts, both still in their prime or at least plausibly close enough. Players like that never get traded in the NHL anymore. They certainly don’t get traded for each other, straight up, without any retained salary or picks or complicated conditions.

And to be clear: This is the Subban deal. With all due respect to Weber, who has been in the “best defenseman alive” conversation for much of his career and was still playing big minutes on a very good Predators blueline, he’s not the best asset in the deal. Subban is three years younger and carries a far more reasonable contract. And most importantly, he’s the better player.

Granted, that last view isn’t exactly unanimous. Weber has plenty of fans, including among NHL front offices. He’s a force on the powerplay and owner of the league’s most intimidating shot from the point, one known to literally destroy nets. He’s become a divisive player in recent years, one that old school types tend to love but that more analytics-based fans see as a guy who’s now overvalued based on past accomplishments. Either way, Weber will be Montreal’s best defenseman for years to come. This is not the second coming of Patrick Roy for a handful of magic beans.

But it is a bad deal, because even if you think the 30-year-old Weber is a better player than the 27-year-old Subban today (he isn’t), the odds of that being the case in years to come will be slim. And there are years to come, lots of them, because Weber is still signed for an astonishing ten more seasons. He’ll be 40 years old by then, and the list of offensive defensemen who played at a high level for that long is basically Ray Bourque, Nicklas Lidstrom, Al MacInnis and pray for rain. Meanwhile, Subban’s deal carries a higher cap hit, but only takes him to his age 33 season. In a salary cap league, contract value is half of any trade evaluation, and in this case it’s just not close.

And that’s a big part of the reason that Habs fans are freaking out right now, with many pundits savaging Bergevin for making the deal. Not everyone, of course—again, Weber has his backers, and there’s always a portion of every fan base that will fall in line with any move the team makes. But Montreal isn’t a town that’s prone to rose-colored glasses, and there’s more than a little palpable anger over the deal right now. (For a small taste, check out the responses to this tweet from Habs owner Geoff Molson.)

All of which leads us to the obvious question: What the hell is Montreal thinking here? Why make this move? And why now?

The second part of that question is actually the easy one to answer. The Canadiens moved now because Subban’s contract contained a no-trade clause that was set to kick in on Friday. It was now or never, at least as far as moving the defenseman without his prior permission. That led to all sorts of speculation in recent weeks that Habs GM Marc Bergevin was shopping his star—one opposing GM had even been fined $50,000 for admitting he made a call. Through it all, Bergevin denied that he had any intention of pulling the trigger. Some of us even believed him.

But if Friday’s NTC deadline came into play, that only makes the deal more confusing from Montreal’s perspective. This is a trade you only make if you feel like you have no choice. But why feel that way about moving a player who’s been as effective as Subban? Even coming off an epic disaster of a season like the one the Habs just endured, who looks at that roster and says “Yep, P.K. Subban is the problem here”?

And that’s where it gets tricky, because the story of P.K. Subban has never just been about what happens on the ice. He’s been a lightning rod ever since he entered the league, one who’d get almost as much attention for his goal celebrations as for the goals themselves. Opposing fans hated him, media would nit-pick him, opponents often seemed to want to strangle him, and hockey people would occasionally mumble under their breath that this kid just wasn’t what a hockey player was supposed to be.

Maybe it was his off-ice personality, which always stood out, in the sense that he actually had one. Maybe it was his on-ice demeanor, which could sometimes seem over-the-top compared to his more stoic teammates. Maybe it was the “elephant in the room” referred to by former NHLer Anthony Stewart in a series of tweets yesterday. (Stewart didn’t specify what exactly he meant, but it’s worth pointing out that both players are black, which remains a rarity in the NHL.) Never mind that Subban should have been one of the NHL’s most marketable players, a guy who could donate millions to charity one day and nail a Don Cherry impression the next. For some reason, a certain segment of the hockey world just couldn’t like the guy.

Whatever the rationale, Subban had his run-ins with the Canadiens, too, and specifically with head coach Michel Therrien. Three years ago, Therrien decided that he didn’t like the way Subban high-fived. More recently, he accused Subban of making “a selfish play that cost us the game” in February, a rare case of a coach publicly calling out a star player for the sort of mistake that would usually be handled behind closed doors. It’s hard not to look at yesterday’s trade as anything but the Canadians choosing Therrien over Subban.

And if that’s the case, then quite frankly, the Canadiens are insane. Flaws and all, Subban is an elite defenseman, the kind that most teams refuse to even think about moving. (Just ask the Oilers.) Therrien is a coach who was rumored to be on the verge of being fired just a few months ago. Nobody would be shocked if he didn’t make it all the way through next season. And the Canadiens chose him over a Norris winner?

It just doesn’t make sense. Unless, of course, there’s more to the story. Which there will be—in the time-honored tradition of hockey trades, expect the knives to come out for Subban (anonymously of course) over the next few days. But short of finding out that Subban had been regularly cold-cocking teammates or thought that a slice of bread was a dumb place to put a hot dog, it’s hard to imagine anything coming out that will be of any comfort to Montreal fans. Nor should it. This was an awful trade.

As for the rest of us, we’ll be sure to get our jokes in at their expense. (Personally, I can scratch “Make fun of the Habs and have it echoed by former WWE champion CM Punk” off my bucket list.) It’s always fun to point and laugh when some other team makes the big mistake, even if your own team has made more than its fair share of blundes.

Just be careful with all the punchlines, everyone. Don’t let anyone catch you smiling, or actually enjoying yourself. That’s how you get a bad reputation in the hockey world, and it could apparently get you shipped off to Nashville. Whether it makes any damn sense or not.