Every year, Australia and New Zealand meet on the rugby league paddock to celebrate our shared history and close kinship on battlefields’ past. VICE Sports AUNZ editors Jed Smith and Ben Stanley breaks down this Friday’s Anzac Test in Canberra, and what you should keep your eye on.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Videos by VICE
Australia vs New Zealand
GIO Stadium in Canberra, ACT
Friday May 5
8pm AEST (10pm NZT)
HALVES
AUSTRALIA (JED SMITH): Ten State of Origin series wins from 11 starts to go with nine Anzac test wins from the last ten don’t lie. The Cooper Cronk/Jonathan Thurston halves pairing will go down as the best this country has ever seen.
Whether Jonathan Thurston can overcome a calf injury in time for Friday’s test is the question is. His omission will surely be the only hope of the Kiwis getting the ascendancy in the halves, although Thurston’s lack of match fitness given his month long lay-off might also be an area for the Kiwi’s to exploit towards the back half of the game. If Thurston fails the fitness test, Cronulla’s James Maloney will fill-in and there are serious concerns about his form, in particular his discipline, over the first nine rounds, having given away more penalties than almost anyone in the league.
NEW ZEALAND (BEN STANLEY): The Warriors halves pairing will be the Kiwis one on Friday night, when Shaun Johnson and Kieran Foran pull on the black jumper in Canberra. On paper, this is a dream duo for New Zealand, but in practice, Johnson and Foran haven’t quite made it gel yet at Mt Smart.
Johnson’s leadership late on against the Roosters last weekend should give him confidence, though there was a real lack of fluency and execution from the pair for the majority of the tight victory.
KICKING GAME
AUSTRALIA (JS): If shared between Thurston, Cronk and Cameron Smith it’s hard to see anything but a night of misery for the Kiwi’s back three. This trio’s tactical kicking and all round command of the game has led to an unprecedented reign of dominance for the Queensland origin side, Australian Test side, along with a handful of NRL premierships for the Storm and Cowboys.
That said, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Jordan Rapana are both in career best form and among the league leaders in meters run per game. How they handle the tactical kicking of Australia’s Queenslander spine will be a telling battle.
NEW ZEALAND (BS): Both tactically and for goal-kicking, the Kiwis will have some good options on Friday. Shaun Johnson was steady at the tee last weekend for the Roosters, nailing a last minute penalty for the win, while his skill with cross-field bombs and grubbers remains undiminished. Though Bronco Jordan Kahu presents a good back-up option, expect Johnson to do the majority of the heavy lifting here – and do it ably.
FORWARD PACK
AUSTRALIA (JS): On stats alone, it looks like an uphill battle for Kiwi forward pack. With nine rounds gone in the NRL, Jason Taumololo is the only Kiwi forward to register among the league’s top meter-eaters versus three from the Australian pack (Cordner, Fifita and Klemmer). The experience of Queensland greats Cameron Smith and Sam Thaiday when matched with the aggression and youth of Fifita, Frizell and Jordan Mclean is gonna take some stopping.
NEW ZEALAND (BS): Traditionally New Zealand’s biggest international asset – that will be the case again in Canberra on Friday, even though the Aussie forwards will have the edge. Skipper Kenny Bromwich will lead a quartet of hard-working big boppers, which sees prop Russell Packer, who did a stretch in an Australian prison for assault, back in the mix for the first time since 2011.
Industrious second rower Simon Mannering’s return to the fold after a break from test footy is huge, while Cowboys back rower Jason Taumalolo gives the Kiwis something their rivals don’t have: a game-changer in the second and third phase. Bought in as late cover, Tigers second rower Elijah Taylor will have a bit of use, too.
ATTACK
AUSTRALIA (JS): Plenty to like in both sides. New Zealand’s spine of Foran, Luke, Johnson and Tuivasa-Sheck have the bonus of continuity having played together against Australia in the Four Nations last November as well as turning out each week for the Warriors at club level (the Warriors are tanking at 11th in the league, however). Jordan Rapana is in goofed nick and near the top of the league in meters run and line breaks.
They will have to contend with the ultra-consistent Darius Boyd spearheading attacking raids set in motion by the unbeatable hooker-halves combo of Thurston, Cronk and Smith in the middle. Josh Dugan has been moved to the centres from fullback for the Test opening raising a possible question mark in the Australian attack, though his form at club level would suggest otherwise. If the likes of Fifita and Thaiday can get a head of steam, Australia’s second phase play in the middle could rip the heart out of the Kiwis.
NEW ZEALAND (BS): The Kiwis benefit hugely from the return from injury by fullback Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. The Warriors captain is an electrifying counter-attacking weapon, and key component of an attacking spine that features Johnson, Foran and veteran hooker Issac Luke.
Like the halves pairing, on paper it looks superb – but its never unfolded quite that way on the international footy paddock. The big Kiwi forward pack – led by skipper Jesse Bromwich and Mannering – should provide a solid platform for the spine to create from.
DEFENCE
AUSTRALIA (JS): With the likes of 2016 Dally M medal winner and perennial meter-eater Jason Taumololo attacking the fringes, Will Chambers and Josh Dugan will be in for a long night. There is a weakness to be exploited in Dugan who plays fullback at club level and will not have been tested defensively. Rang-y, explosive ball-runners with the capacity for second-phase play are something of a Kiwi speciality.
Some early points for NZ through attacking Australia’s fringes might set the scene for a spectacular boil over.
NEW ZEALAND (BS): Mannering’s return adds a resolve at the second and third tackles the Kiwis missed at the Four Nations last year. His presence will be crucial in shutting down the options of Aussie playmakers Cameron Smith and Jonathan Thurston.
X-FACTOR
AUSTRALIA (JS): Andrew Fifita. At 1.94 meters and 116 kilograms, this guy is anything when he’s on. They are the kind of physics that are simply impossible to wrap your head around for us couch potatoes. They are also what make rugby league unlike any game on earth. Fresh back from suspension courtesy of coach, Mal Meninga’s ‘no dickhead policy’ (Fifita was captured supporting friend and one-punch-killer Kieren Loveridge with his strapping tape), he will be out to prove a point in the ANZAC test and that is a scary thought.
NEW ZEALAND (BS): Jason Taumalolo. While it would be give exocet fullback Tuivasa-Sheck the nod here for his electrifying counter-attacking skill, Taumalolo’s brute strength and ability to break the line gives the Kiwis a hard-to-handle man in the middle of the park that provides plenty of opportunities for blokes like Johnson, Foran and Luke to feed off. Quite simply, the giant Cowboys forward is the best big man in league – and will be a real handful for the Aussies.
COACHING
AUSTRALIA (JS): There is simply no more respected figure in Australian rugby league than ‘big Mal’ Meninga (aka Smell-Ma Finger). The straight-shooting, Brisbane, Canberra, Queensland and Australian test great is a man of few words, who famously lasted on sentence as a politician, though who casts a spell of commitment, sacrifice and solidarity over any squad he coaches.
With the likes of Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk, Jonathan Thurston and Sam Thaiday in the team, he doesn’t really have to do all that much other than foster a team bond, which has proved difficult in years gone by due to factional in-fighting between Queensland and NSW players. That’s a thing of the past under big Mal while his ode, penned by Sam Thaiday while high on morphine, will have the team more revved up than ever before.
NEW ZEALAND (BS): After taking over from now-Warriors boss Stephen Kearney last September, former Storm and Rabbitohs enforcer David Kidwell will coach the Kiwis in an Anzac test for the first time in Canberra. A former assistant coach at the Storm and Tigers, Kidwell comes from the Craig Bellamy (a one-time mentor) school of organised, tough footy and adds a Kiwi mongrel that made him so fearsome on the footy paddock.
That said: he’s made a pretty limp start to his Kiwis tenure, managing only one victory (over England) at last year’s Four Nations in the UK while drawing with minnows Scotland 18-18. Kidwell’s got the cattle for a win this Friday, and will be helped by former England coach Steve McNamara – the new Kiwis assistant.
HISTORY
AUSTRALIA (JS): Since the inception of the Anzac Test in 1997, Australia has enjoyed a remarkable run of dominance providing the yin to the All Blacks all-conquering yang in rugby union. But we’re not hear to talk about that. That’s something for the champagne sniffers down at Woollahra to ponder.
NEW ZEALAND (BS): For virtually the entire history of the Anzac Test, the match has been New Zealand league’s yearly reminder that, despite any World Cup or Four Nations victory, the Aussies were still a cut above. The 17 official Anzac encounters have only produced two Kiwis victories (1998 and 2015), while last year’s match produced a comfortable 16-0 win to Australia. That said, up until last year’s loss, the Kiwis did have three straight wins over the Kangaroos.
PREDICTIONS
JS: 30-14 to Australia. A cold, dry night, as predicted in Canberra, will feed into a dominant display for the Australian forward pack, creating space on the fringes for Thurston and Cronk to exploit.
BS: 18-14 to New Zealand. A classic Anzac encounter won, at the death, by the Kiwis.
BONUS PREVIEW: JILLAROOS VS KIWI FERNS
Predictions:
JS: 20-14 to the Jillaroos, led by a typically barnstorming performance from the 35-year-old Australian women’s GOAT, Ruan Sims.
BS: 28-24 to the Kiwi Ferns. New Zealand to do the double in Canberra.
