Here’s something you didn’t see coming back in April: the Colorado Rockies are within five games of the playoffs. That doesn’t mean they are on the verge of the postseason―there are five teams between Colorado and the top wild-card spot―but the baseball in Denver has been better than expected. The Rockies are certain to finish in third place and have a chance to top .500 for the first time since 2010. While everyone wants 97 wins and a ring, a fun and decent team beats a sad and lousy one every time―especially in a place accustomed to the latter.
The Rockies owe their sudden ascension into mediocrity to their young stars. Trevor Story captured us during the season’s first weeks, and had a chance at hitting 40 home runs as a rookie shortstop before he tore the UCL in his thumb―an injury that’s expected to end his campaign. Fortunately, outfielder David Dahl has since filled in admirably as the Rox freshman de jour. And hey, what’s that? The Rockies―the Rockies―even have a few interesting homegrown pitchers? Yes, really.
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Jon Gray and Tyler Anderson have combined to give the Rockies 31 starts, or nearly a full season’s worth. Those 31 starts comprise 186 innings, a 4.02 run average, and a 3.40 strikeout-to-walk ratio. For reference, the average big-league starter has a 4.65 run average and a 2.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Adjust Gray and Anderson’s numbers for ballpark, and they look even better. If you find a lizard in your home, you don’t name it Lyla and treat it as a pet. By the same token, if you find a young starter or two succeeding in the harshest pitching environment known to big-league man, you don’t miss an opportunity to dig in. So let’s dig, beginning with the basics.
Gray was the third overall pick a few drafts ago. He conforms to most expectations placed on a well-regarded pitching prospect hailing from the University of Oklahoma, as he’s a big-bodied booger who appears to have been constructed by his Creator to eat more frames than a faulty film projector. Gray throws his fastball in the mid to upper 90s, and when he gets bored of the heat he turns to a slider that he’s willing and able to manipulate the break on, depending on his mood. His most notable personality quirk―besides the long hair and scruffy chin, anyway―is his decision to follow in the footsteps of Alfred Russel Wallace, Frederic W.H. Myers, and other honorable souls who sought answers to life’s most important question. That’s right, Gray hunts ghosts.
The only ghosts around Anderson, meanwhile, are from those old arguments stating the Rockies messed up by taking him 20th overall in 2011, ahead of numerous prep arms with more perceived upside. For whatever it’s worth, Anderson has heretofore had a better big-league career than most of those named, including Robert Stephenson and Taylor Guerrieri. Whether that statement remains true heading forward hinges in part on his ability to stay on the mound, which has been a struggle. Anderson’s raw stuff isn’t as impressive as Gray’s, though his funky delivery deceives hitters by coupling a compact arm action with a herky-jerky front leg kick that seems to pause and ask, “Are you sure you want me to go to the plate?”
Tyler Anderson’s delivery is funky, but not as funky as the fact that he and teammate Jon Gray are succeeding at Coors Field. Photo: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports.
Colorado’s rotation has always been defined by its failures. You know all about the four-man rotation experiment and the unnervingly long list of hurlers who proved unable to catch their breath at Coors’ altitude. You know that the highlights in recent years consist of Jorge De La Rosa being Jorge De La Rosa and Tyler Chatwood’s rise as the dime-store Aaron Cook. What you probably don’t know is how Gray and Anderson are making good on their opportunities.
The answer is probably not as exciting as you’d like. Each throws strikes and avoids walks; whereas Gray is more likely to get a strikeout, Anderson has an elite groundball rate. (Evidently, Anderson is also the one with the elite ability to suppress quality of contact.) Those are all good skills to have in general, of course, and particularly in Coors. Think about it this way: base runners are more likely to score in higher-run environments, so the ability to get an out without the ball being put into play―or two outs on a single ball in play―are of increased importance.
If there is an intriguing subplot to the success of Gray and Anderson that goes beyond “good pitching is good pitching,” it has to revolve around their arsenals. A few years back, Dan Rozenson studied how Colorado’s elevation affected pitch movement. He found that sliders and cutters were less affected than curveballs. Ergo, it would make more sense for the Rockies to prioritize a harder breaking ball. Interestingly, both Gray and Anderson rely upon cutters-slash-sliders rather than hooks. Is that by luck or design? (Ah, back to Gray’s quest.)
Without really knowing, I can’t write that Gray and Anderson were manufactured (or identified as being manufactured) to succeed in Coors Field. What I can write is that Gray and Anderson seem like promising young starters who just so happen to pitch half their games in Coors. Should that continue, then the Rockies have hope—not just for 2016 or 2017 but, rather, for good, knowing that there are pitchers who can survive in Coors.
Oh, and hope that two of them might already be Rockies.
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