Welcome to the first VICE Sports College Football Bowl Projections of 2015. Now that we’re nine weeks into the season and the College Football Playoff selection committee is about to put out its initial rankings, we can make at least somewhat educated guesses as to where schools will end up.
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A few things to remember:
● These projections are based on what I think will happen at the end of the year, not what would happen if the season ended today.
● The Playoff committee selects the top four seeds and places the top seed in the semifinal game closest to their campus. This year, the Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl host semifinals.
● The committee also places teams in the Fiesta and Peach bowls. The Rose and Sugar bowls technically choose their own replacements this year, but they will rely heavily on the rankings.
● Outside the New Year’s Six, bowls sometimes have to pick based on conference standings but mostly are allowed to put together their favorite matchups so long as the teams fit within the event’s tier. For instance, in the past, the Citrus Bowl got the second Big Ten pick and the Outback Bowl got the third. Now the Citrus, Outback, and Holiday are all equal in the Big Ten 2-4 tier.
● If a bowl runs out of eligible teams for its conference tie-in, it can look elsewhere.
● This might be the first year there aren’t enough bowl-eligible teams (meaning that they finish with at least a 6-6 record) to fill out the total bowl lineup. If that happens, teams that finish 5-7 can be chosen.
Our projections:
Bowl
Date
Matchup
Tie-ins
National Championship
January 11
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Alabama
Playoff
Orange (Playoff)
December 31
No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Alabama
Playoff
Cotton (Playoff)
December 31
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
Playoff
Fiesta (New Year’s Six)
January 1
Baylor vs. Iowa
At-large vs. At-large
Rose (NY 6)
January 1
Michigan State vs. Stanford
Big Ten 1 vs. Pac-12 1
Sugar (NY 6)
January 1
TCU vs. LSU
Big 12 1 vs. SEC 1
Peach (NY 6)
December 31
Memphis vs. Florida
At-large vs. At-large
Alamo
January 2
Oklahoma vs. USC
Big 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2
Cactus
January 2
Texas vs. Washington
Big 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7
Liberty
January 2
Texas Tech vs. Kentucky
Big 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8
TaxSlayer
January 2
North Carolina vs. Georgia
ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8
Citrus
January 1
Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 2
Outback
January 1
Northwestern vs. Texas A&M
Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8
Belk
December 30
Duke vs. Auburn
ACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8
Birmingham
December 30
Houston vs. Western Kentucky
AAC vs. SEC 9
Holiday
December 30
Wisconsin vs. Utah
Big Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3
Music City
December 30
Penn State vs. Tennessee
ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8
Arizona
December 29
Akron vs. San Diego State
C-USA vs. MWC
Armed Forces
December 29
Central Michigan vs. Air Force
Big Ten vs. MWC
Russell Athletic
December 29
Florida State vs. Oklahoma State
ACC 2 vs. Big 12 3
Texas
December 29
West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Big 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8
Military
December 28
Louisville vs. Navy
ACC vs. AAC
Quick Lane
December 28
NC State vs. Arizona State
ACC vs. Big Ten
Foster Farms
December 26
Illinois vs. UCLA
Big Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4
Heart of Dallas
December 26
Arizona vs. Middle Tennessee
Big 12 7 vs. C-USA
Independence
December 26
Virginia Tech vs. Auburn
ACC vs. SEC
Pinstripe
December 26
Miami vs. Indiana
ACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7
St. Petersburg
December 26
Tulsa vs. Old Dominion
AAC vs. C-USA
Sun
December 26
Pitt vs. Oregon
ACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5
Bahamas
December 24
Marshall vs. Ohio
C-USA vs. MAC 4/5
Hawaii
December 24
Washington State vs. BYU
AAC vs. MWC/BYU
GoDaddy
December 23
Toledo vs. Georgia Southern
MAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2
Poinsettia
December 23
San Diego State vs. Buffalo
MWC vs. Army
Boca Raton
December 22
Temple vs. Western Michigan
AAC vs. MAC
Potato
December 22
Bowling Green vs. Utah State
MAC 2 vs. MWC
Miami Beach
December 21
Cincinnati vs. Louisiana Tech
AAC vs. C-USA
Camellia
December 19
Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State
MAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3
Cure
December 19
South Florida vs. UL-Lafayette
AAC vs. Sun Belt
Las Vegas
December 19
Boise State vs. Cal
MWC 1/BYU vs. Pac-12 6
New Mexico
December 19
Rice vs. Nevada
C-USA vs. MWC
New Orleans
December 19
Appalachian State vs. Southern Miss
Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA
And now I’ll explain myself:
● I’ve been on the Notre Dame train all year, and I think the Irish win out. Road wins over Temple and Stanford, plus a home win over USC and only one loss—a narrow one against Clemson—will get Notre Dame in.
● Ohio State won’t be the top seed when the initial rankings come out; they might not even be in the top four. But after beating Michigan State, Michigan, and the Big Ten West champ, the Buckeyes will have the best resume in the country.
● The Big 12 is going to beat itself up again. Imagine that!
● Stanford might—might—get in if it wins out; regardless, I see a loss to Notre Dame.
● I have Iowa losing a regular season game and the Big Ten Championship, but just barely sneaking into the New Year’s Six games over Utah. If the Hawkeyes go undefeated and win the Big Ten Championship, they’re in the Playoff. If they go 12-0 in the regular season but lose the Big Ten title game, slot them in ahead of Michigan State for the Rose Bowl.
● My favorite non-major matchups: Oklahoma-USC, Wisconsin-Utah, Michigan-Ole Miss, Washington State-BYU, and Cal-Boise State. I also really like Memphis-Florida and Baylor-Iowa, though that is to be expected for New Year’s Six games.