Game of the Week: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 1 ET, CBS
The first time we saw this matchup, in Week 8, the Pittsburgh Voltron had just been assembled for the first time all season. LeVeon Bell isn’t coming back, but the Steelers’ passing game is in a groove and should be able to do better than the 10 measly points they scored in Ben Roethlisberger’s return to action six weeks ago.
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The Steelers need this game to stay in the AFC Wild Card race. The Kansas City Chiefs and the New York Jets are tied with them at 7-5, and the Chiefs don’t figure to have a single tough game for the rest of the schedule. Pittsburgh plays Cincinnati and Denver the next two weeks, and realistically needs a split to stay in the playoff picture.
READ MORE: Playing Fantasy Football The George Costanza Way, Week 14
Week 8 was also the first time all season that Andy Dalton’s quarterback play looked mortal. The Joe Goodberry theory of common opponents and Dalton says this should be another stinker. Cincinnati’s defense should keep this closer than the Colts were able to, but I can’t see Dalton keeping serve here.
Pick: Pittsburgh 31, Cincinnati 23
Football Nerd Game of the Week: Atlanta at Carolina, 1 ET, FOX
Your assignment this week, if you choose to accept it, is to watch Atlanta’s offense and figure out why they’re so bad now. Is it that woeful offensive line, once thought to have been fixed back in Week 4? Is it the lack of receiving weapons?
Last weekend, it was Matt Ryan coming under fire for the Falcons’ poor performance. While I think that’s a logical reaction to the stat lines and some ill-timed interceptions—Ryan’s certainly not playing well—Atlanta has many problems beyond their quarterback.
Cam Newton and company, frolicking. Photo by Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports
Carolina, if you hadn’t noticed, is 12-0. The Panthers do have one of the best defenses in the league, and while their offensive line is better than Atlanta’s, Cam Newton doesn’t have appreciably better skill players at his disposal than Ryan.
Come to think of it, your assignment this week is to tell me what Newton is doing that Ryan isn’t. And don’t say running—Ryan runs for his life every Sunday.
Pick: Carolina 23, Atlanta 10
Playoff Positioning Game of the Week: New England at Houston, 8:30 ET, NBC
Without Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, the Patriots have resorted to some truly desperate measures. Last week, they targeted Keshawn Martin eight times. Danny Amendola is now the foundation of the passing game. Scott Chandler is involved on non-goal-line plays. Tom Brady has been able to overcome a lot of this, but not all of it. After seeming almost a mortal lock to have home field as of Thanksgiving, after losing two in a row the Pats are now in third place in the AFC.
The Texans have climbed into a virtual tie for the AFC South lead, and their last three games of the season are against other AFC South teams. If they win out on those games, tiebreakers dictate they should win the division. That involves winning in Indianapolis, possibly against a healed Andrew Luck. For those of you scoring at home, the last time the Texans won in Indy was “never.”
With no Gronk and J.J. Watt nursing a broken hand, this matchup lacks the cachet NBC probably thought they were getting when they flexed it a few weeks ago to Sunday night. Sure, we have the Brian Hoyer-Bill O’Brien-Vince Wilfork subplot, but all three of them should just be thankful that they currently have their jobs. Look for some boring Brady efficiency, lots of tackles short of the sticks, and for DeAndre Hopkins to get mad at the lack of targets he receives.
Pick: New England 24, Houston 16
Don’t worry, America: you’ll see plenty of J.J. Watt Beats by Dre commercials on Sunday. Photo by Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
Denting Playoff Hopes Game of the Week: Philadelphia at Buffalo, 1 ET, CBS
The winner of this game gets sole possession of the “Chip Kelly is a racist” meme. If the Bills win, Rex Ryan will name the meme team captain and send it out to call coin tosses for the rest of the year. If the Eagles win, Chip will swap it out for a boring meme he knows better (“Chip eats mayonnaise out of the jar,” perhaps).
The winner of this game also gets a leg up in the playoff races. The Bills need a win to keep on the heels of the Chiefs-Steelers-Jets trifecta. At 16.2 percent in Football Outsiders’ playoff odds, a loss all but eliminates them. The Eagles aren’t in such dire straits, but only because they play in the worst division in the NFL. A loss could either severely dent their chances or somehow elevate them to first place. Math with losing records is complicated.
The Bills seem to be the more functional team here. Yes, that’s right, Rex Ryan’s team with no pass rush works better. However, I’m inclined to go with the Eagles. I’m betting on regression to the mean for their defense, and I’m betting on Sam Bradford not doing enough Sam Bradford things to completely sabotage the pick. This is why I don’t gamble.
Pick: Philadelphia 26, Buffalo 23
Prime-Time Game That Shouldn’t Be: Miami at New York Giants, 8:30 ET Monday, ESPN
Nothing screams “unofficial NFC East member” like a perpetually disappointing team with lackluster quarterback play in spite of good weapons.
The Dolphins have it all. They fire coaches like Daniel Snyder. They sign big defensive tackles to stupid-big contracts like Washington. They draw attendance like … well, also like Washington. I think we’ve found Miami’s spirit animal.
The Giants are at the point of this boss fight where they no longer know what to do. They can’t run, they can’t stop the pass, and their offensive line is calling out for Phoenix Downs. They’re mashing buttons and casting the dumb spells at the bottom of the inventory like “Sight,” “Evil Gate,” and “Preston Parker.” They don’t actually know what these spells do, because Eli Manning threw out the instruction manual.
Cherish all the Eli Manning faces while you can. Photo by Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
The good news for the Dolphins is that Washington has beaten the Giants twice, and that Washington gets to appear on national television fairly often for some reason.
Pick: Miami 26, Giants 19
Only Available on Local Broadcasts Game of the Week: San Francisco at Cleveland, 1 ET, FOX
This game actually does matter for a few reasons. With a Tennessee win last week, Cleveland are the heavy favorites for the No. 1 overall pick. No NFC team has fewer than four wins, and the Browns are up a game on the Titans and the Chargers with four to play. Alas, the 49ers are the sort of team that challenges your conceptions of how bad your bad team is. They’re the last team on the schedule the Browns have much of a prayer to beat.
Worse yet, Johnny Manziel will actually have to play! How could the Browns have managed two wins if they’d started the young player from the beginning of the season? What if he’s so good he actually manages to win this game and push the Browns back to a three-way tie for the top of the draft? Does that mean he can get dealt to Dallas for a sixth-round pick next year?
I’m sorry, 49ers, I really am, but when it comes to high-level screw-ups, all you guys have is: letting Jim Harbaugh go for no reason, firing your team president in-season, signing Torrey Smith for some reason, watching the entire team retire, giving a big contract to Colin Kaepernick … I take it back, you belong in this game.
Pick: Browns 21, 49ers 20
