We’ve all played the “would you rather” game with baseball players. If you’re starting a franchise, who would you rather have? Or for one at bat with the game on the line?
What could make that hypothetical more fun? Asking actual talent evaluators who they would rather have. This season, we’ll take some of the best players/groups in baseball and ask scouts and executives who they’d take in a head-to-head situation.
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Madison Bumgarner has been one of the most successful pitchers in baseball over the past few years and recently injured himself riding a dirt bike. Shohei Otani may be a new name to you, but he’s one of—if not the—best talents Japan has ever produced. Both players excel on the mound, and they both bring a little something extra beyond their pitching. But if you were a baseball executive, who would you rather have for your team?
To get the answer, I asked a front-office executive who has seen both players in person to break them down by tools.
Fastball:
“Bumgarner has an excellent fastball, obviously. He locates it well, and there’s some good movement to the pitch. He’s also got that cutter, or slider, whatever you wanna call it. It helps.
“Otani’s fastball is at a different level, though. He gets into triple-digits, and it’s not straight.”
Grades
Bumgarner: 65
Otani: 80
Curveball:
“This is no contest. Bumgarner’s curveball is one of the best of any left-hander in baseball, assuming Clayton Kershaw doesn’t count. There’s so much hard spin and even if you pick it up, good luck. Otani throws a nice 12-6 curveball, but it’s nowhere near what [Bumgarner] is throwing.”
Grades:
Bumgarner: 70
Otani: 55
Change:
“Gotta give this one to Otani. He throws a pretty nasty split that basically acts as his change. Bumgarner barely throws his change anymore, it’s more of a “hey remember this” pitch, which is fine, but it’s not nearly as effective as it used to be. He doesn’t need it to be, though.”
Grades:
Bumgarner: 50
Otani: 60
Command:
“Bumgarner by a country mile, and it should be. We’re talking about a mid-twenties Cy Young Candidate compared to a 22-year-old. There’s no reason to think Otani won’t have good enough command to start and he throws a lot of strikes, but Bumgarner locates everything. Even when he’s wild, it’s wild with intent.”
Grades:
Bumgarner 70
Otani: 45
Hitting:
“Otani would be a legit prospect with the bat. He strikes out a lot, but he makes a lot of hard contact and there’s legit power from the left side. Bumgarner has more power, but he doesn’t have near Otani’s hit tool. If he was an everyday hitter, he’d get exposed by breaking-balls. He’s a lot of fun with the homers, though. Grip it and rip it.”
Grades:
Bumgarner hit: 30 Power: 60
Otani hit: 55 Power: 50
And the winner is…
“Otani is a special prospect. We’ll never be able to afford him, but if you put him in the draft and we had the number one pick, it’d be easy. He’s a special talent.
As good as he is, I’d rather have Bumgarner. This is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and there’s just so much more safety. The offense is nice with Otani, but I’d rather have those quality innings and the guaranteed ace.”
