The Philippines under Rodrigo Duterte has witnessed media crackdowns, the erosion of democratic institutions, and a bloody war on drugs that has created a climate of impunity not seen since the days of martial law in the country.
But U.S. President Donald Trump’s dramatic election loss is providing a glimmer of hope among many in the Southeast Asian country that they can reverse their own strongman trend, especially with a nationwide vote looming in 2022.
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“Trump’s defeat serves both as a warning and reminder to Duterte and his minions that all tyrants, regardless of their popularity and power, will fall. Mr. Duterte has been warned,” Etta Rosales, former chairperson for the Commission on Human Rights, said in a statement.
“Today’s tyrants will be tomorrow’s toppled despots. Today, it is Trump. In 2022, it will be Duterte and his continuity candidates,” she added.
After several years as mayor of a southern city Duterte rose to power in 2016, the same year as Trump’s shocking victory. Their populist approaches, outsider image, contempt for the media and the restrained style of politics expected from world leaders were the source of many comparisons, with international outlets calling Duterte “the Trump of the east.”
Duterte’s allies have successfully ousted the Supreme Court chief justice and arrested an elected Senator on what critics say were trumped up drug charges. He enjoys support from the supermajority in both chambers of the Philippine Congress.
Trump’s praise for Duterte’s war on drugs made him deeply unpopular with opponents of the president in the Philippines, who now see the election result in the U.S. as an omen of change back home.
“Trump out, Duterte you’re next,” read several tweets after U.S. media networks called the election for Democratic nominee and now President-elect Joe Biden after days of suspenseful counting. An #OustDuterteNow hashtag also pinballed around social media.
One viral meme showed a photo of Trump tapping Duterte on the shoulder with a caption saying, “Dude, you’re next.”
One wrinkle in their plans is that Duterte is supposed to leave office anyway under a constitution that requires presidents to step down after one six-year term. But analysts believe he and his allies will anoint a successor who will carry on his same policies.
That fear and the experience of seeing how the large voter turnout in the U.S. influenced the outcome in Biden’s favor have already prompted Filipino netizens on social media to encourage one another to register to vote as early as possible.
But replicating the U.S. success will not be easy in a country where Duterte’s administration tops opinion polls and where a sophisticated propaganda infrastructure on social media is firmly entrenched. The past few years have also seen an erosion of independent media, a key force in the U.S. election as outlets continued to investigate and fact-check Trump.
Former National Youth Commission chairperson Leon Flores III, who teaches at the Ateneo School of Government, said Trump’s fall probably doesn’t mean the end to the Duterte-style era of politics, but conceded that “anything is possible.”
“Unmasking any tyranny or impunity by the current regime will require triple the effort and quadruple the sacrifice. The grit and determination demonstrated by both Republican and Democrat volunteers and organized groups during the [US] campaign is something that should be replicated,” he told VICE News.
James Jimenez, spokesperson for the Commission on Elections, said there are 63 million projected voters in 2022 but that registration during a worsening pandemic will prove challenging.
“One third of the voter turnout in 2019 [Senatorial elections] is composed of the youth and that’s a significant number. I think it will even be greater now especially that the youth are mobilized and aware. We hope they step up,” he told VICE News.
Duterte has repeatedly said he will not seek a term extension even as his allies have discussed tinkering with constitutional term limits. But a recent survey done during one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in Asia showed a 92% approval rating.
He has publicly told his daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, to run for president in 2022. He may also ask his longtime aide and now elected Senator Christopher Go to run.
Meanwhile, experts say that the opposition has no clear candidate yet with the star power, campaign network and financial resources to mount a successful challenge.
