MOUNT PLEASANT, Iowa â As he wrapped up his speech Friday night, Joe Biden made clear how crucial Iowa could be to the Democratic Partyâs choice in defeating President Trump.âDemocracy starts here. Democracy starts in Iowa, every four years, and youâre going to make a decision of who comes out the gate, whoâs left, whoâs eliminated and whoâs going to be able to continue on,â he said. âAnd I think thatâs an enormous responsibility.âA lot of Democrats, both in Iowa and nationally, are hoping Mondayâs caucuses will provide some clarity for voters as to who can actually win the nomination, and whoâd be best suited to take on Trump.But that may not happen. For the first time since the caucuses became the official start of the presidential primary system in 1972, the Iowa Democratic Party plans to release not one but three different election results Monday night. That means if thereâs a close race, there could be multiple candidates legitimately claiming a caucus win.Along with each candidateâs delegate equivalent number, the measure the party has released to show who won, theyâre also planning to put out both the raw votes and the second-round caucus results after the people whose candidates donât hit the 15% viability threshold at their caucus sites get to revote for a different candidate.READ: Mike Bloomberg gave the DNC $300k two days before he entered the 2020 raceCampaigns always spin like hell to make the Iowa caucus results sound as good for them as possible. And now they have a choose-your-own-adventure option coming out of Iowa, which would do little to instill order to the field and let multiple campaigns claim strength heading into New Hampshire. Thatâs especially true if the top four candidates remain as bunched up as theyâve been in recent polls â a prospect that could actually let two different candidates claim victory.âThere are going to be far fewer people who actually know how to interpret the results,â said Tracy Sefl, an Iowa native, Democratic strategist and veteran of the 2008 Hillary Clinton campaign. âThese new numbers are going to let everyone have spin, and itâs going to be pretty hard to know who actually has a grip on reality.âThe Associated Press and most news outlets are going to go with the traditional number: state delegate equivalents. But the three different measures give campaigns wiggle room to choose the number they think will make them look the best.Iowa is always a momentum state â itâs important because itâs first, not because there are that many delegates at hand. And while spokesmen for Buttigieg, Biden and Warren all told VICE News theyâd also be looking at the traditional win-loss measure, other campaigns disagreed that the delegate number is all that matters.READ: Hundreds of people waited hours in freezing temperatures just to see TrumpA Sanders aide told VICE News that theyâre âvery interestedâ in the the raw vote but would look at all three numbers. Echoing other campaignsâ private assessments, that aide said a âvery close race at the top could finish a lot of different ways,â with different candidates leading in different measurements.The numbers are being released for the first time largely because of Sanders â his backers furiously claimed that they mightâve won the Iowa caucusesâ raw vote in 2016, and that Hillary Clinton only edged them out because of the systemâs byzantine formula.Klobucharâs campaign also wouldnât commit ahead of time to which number theyâd use. She risks missing the 15% threshold some places, so her raw vote count might look better than the final delegate allocation.Iowa doesnât always help clear things up â and thatâs often to the detriment of underdogs. In 2012, Rick Santorum appeared to fall just short of Mitt Romney in the GOP caucuses, only to have the state party announce weeks later itâd screwed up and heâd won. It was too late, as his momentum was sapped enough to help Romney claw his way to the nomination.READ: Lev Parnas has a wild plan to burn Trump with a million selfiesIn 2016, Hillary Clintonâs narrow win over Sanders in Iowa meant his New Hampshire win a week later looked more like an aberration, and let her regain her footing in Nevada and South Carolina. Sanders and Biden can likely weather a muddled result in Iowa. But Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar all need big nights to show they can make a real move at the nomination.After stumping for Biden in Fort Madison, former Iowa Got. Tom Vilsack (D) insisted the traditional measure was all that matters, nevermind that this number is likely to benefit Biden because polls show heâs the second choice of more caucus-goers of other candidates.âItâs all about delegates,â he said. âAt the end of the day, thatâs all that matters.âBut what about campaigns spinning whatever number is best for them?âIâm not worried about the campaigns â Iâm worried about you guys [in the media],â he said.Cover: Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, speaks during a campaign event in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, U.S., on Saturday, Feb. 1, 2020. (Photo: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
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Spinning the numbers
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Bernie might have won
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