The British government has been forced to reveal its internal forecasts for the impact a no deal Brexit will have on the country, and it’s not pretty. If the country crashes out of the European Union without a deal on Oct. 31, the British public faces decreased fresh food supplies, rising food and electricity costs, unrest across the country, and vulnerabilities in medical supplies.
The five-page “Operation Yellowhammer” document — outlining the government’s preparations for leaving the European Union without a deal, based on “reasonable worst case planning assumptions” — paints a bleak picture of the consequences of a no deal Brexit. The government had resisted releasing the “sensitive”-classified document, but was forced to publish it after MPs voted 311-302 Monday that the public should know what to expect.
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The document warns that:
- Chaos at the border as a result of new customs controls could lead to freight trucks being delayed by up to 2.5 days, reducing the flow of goods to about 40 percent of its current level.
- If unmitigated, the backlog would have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical products, whose supply chains across the Channel “make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays.” The short shelf lives of some medicines make it impossible to stockpile them to cover anticipated delays of up to six months.
- Supplies of certain types of fresh food will decrease, leading to price rises that could impact the poor. While it wouldn’t lead to overall food shortages, the disruption would come at a critical time, with the UK growing season finished and supply lines under heavy demand ahead of Christmas, and panic buying could exacerbate the problem.
- Pro- and anti-Brexit protests will break out around the country, eating up significant police resources, and there could also be a rise in public order and community tensions.
Other consequences include: likely “significant” electricity price increases, potential outbreaks of animal disease, disruption of some cross-border financial services, and potential clashes if foreign fishing boats enter Britain’s territorial waters.
The alarming document has provoked demands for Parliament to be recalled immediately from the controversial — and possibly illegal — five-week suspension that began early Tuesday. Opposition lawmakers had already been demanding that Parliament be reconvened following a bombshell ruling by a Scottish court Wednesday that Johnson had lied to the queen about the purpose of the suspension.
READ: Boris Johnson lied to the queen to get Parliament suspended, court rules
Keir Starmer, Brexit spokesman for the opposition Labour party, said the dire scenarios forecast by the government showed that its “now more important than ever” for Parliament to be recalled to allow lawmakers time to work to prevent a no deal Brexit.
Labour transport spokesman Andy McDonald said a no deal Brexit would disrupt every area of British life, and hit the working class the hardest.
“This is more like emergency planning for war or a natural disaster and we’re doing this voluntarily,” he told the BBC. “Boris Johnson is crashing the ship against the rocks, and he’ll have a lifeboat — working people will not.”
Johnson has faced intense pressure — including calls for his resignation — since Wednesday’s ruling that his move to suspend Parliament was unlawful.
But speaking to reporters Thursday, he denied he had misled the queen, and reiterated his hope of negotiating a new Brexit deal at a summit of EU leaders, which will be held just two weeks before the Oct. 31 deadline.
“We’re working very hard — I’ve been around the European capitals talking to our friends,” he said. “I think we can see the rough area of a landing space, of how you can do it — it will be tough, it will be hard, but I think we can get there.”
The Scottish court ruling represented just the latest blow for Johnson, who has also lost a string of key votes in Parliament, including the motion compelling the government to release the Operation Yellowhammer document.
Forced to publish the paper, the government has sought to paint it as out of date, claiming that since it was written, on Aug. 2, Downing Street has taken considerable steps to mitigate some of the predicted consequences of a no deal scenario. Michael Gove, the minister in charge of no deal preparations, said the government plans to publish revised assumptions “in due course.”
But those claims have done little to assuage public concerns about the possibility of a no deal exit and the impact predicted in the Yellowhammer document.
“It is utterly unacceptable and frankly staggering that any [government] would run the risk of inflicting this damage on people,” tweeted Scottish National Party MP Ian Blackford.
Cover: London International Shipping Week. Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits the NLV Pharos, a lighthouse tender moored on the river Thames to mark London International Shipping Week. Picture date: Thursday September 12, 2019. Photo credit should read: Daniel Leal-Olivas/PA Wire URN:45208377 (Press Association via AP Images)
