This Whole North Korea Thing Is Escalating Quickly

North Korea has the kind of nuclear warhead that can fit inside a missile, according to the Washington Post, citing a report written by US intelligence officials. When combined with the country’s recent long-range missile breakthroughs, that pretty much means North Korea has the capability to launch a nuclear attack on America.

North Korea, which has had nuclear weapons since 2006, has been working on a viable nuclear arsenal for years but has achieved milestones at dizzying speeds recently. North Korea watchers have observed a steep increase in the number of missile tests starting in about 2014, but experts weren’t certain Kim Jong-Un had nukes small enough to put on those missiles.

If you’re a small nuclear power, missile-mounted warheads—as opposed to bulky warheads that are only good for tests—are a crucial part of claiming you can nuke the US mainland. According to the Defense Intelligence Agency analysis obtained by the Post, Pyongyang has reached that stage.

So it seems Middlebury Center of International Studies researcher Jefferey Lewis was right when he opined in the New York Times last week that “the United States is now vulnerable to North Korea’s nuclear-armed missiles—and has no choice but to live with that reality.”

Donald Trump seemed less sanguine about North Korea’s new capability, however. On Tuesday, shortly after the Post report dropped, he told reporters at his New Jersey golf club that the North can expect “fire and fury” in response to further threats.

This is not unexpected news at all, however. The US government would have known about this technological step since the report was written last month, and North Korea experts weren’t surprised when the news went public.

“The military has been operating for some time with the assumption that the DPRK could at least mount a rudimentary nuclear weapon on an intermediate range missile,” said Rodger Baker, vice president of strategic analysis at the geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor. After all, an undated North Korean propaganda photo that the US has been analyzing since at least February showed Kim Jong-Un hanging out next to what really, really looks like a miniaturized nuclear warhead.

So North Korea’s successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile last month strongly implied that North Korea was a true nuclear power. This report of miniaturization goes a long way toward confirming that implication beyond a doubt.

The questions that remain are mostly about the reliability and usability of North Korea’s arsenal of missiles. Shielding missiles from heat so that they can re-enter the atmosphere is tough, but it’s a challenge North Korea claims to have already met. And then there’s the long-range accuracy of its missiles. North Korea would also no doubt love its own satellite network that can be used for missile guidance (or it may want to borrow China’s network), but it doesn’t have one. So for the time being North Korea has to program the coordinates into the missile’s inertial guidance system, and trust that taking measurements like acceleration, speed, and angle of ascent, its internal computer can determine where the target is.

So in short, North Korea’s array of missiles may not be ready for prime time, but it looks like the show has a script, a crew, lights, cameras, and actors. All that’s left is to nail the dress rehearsal, and it’s showtime. For Donald Trump, that means, according to Baker, “the window for preventative action is closing rapidly.”

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